Oh no: is crowdfunding already dying? According to a just-released study from NexMarket Insights, the number of crowdfunded projects on Kickstarter is now starting to wane, with something called ‘crowdfunding fatigue’ potentially creeping into the picture. “At first glance, it looks like new project launches are actually slowing,” the company assessed.
The research group analyzed Kickstarter activity between July, 2012, and February, 2013. At first glance, the number of successfully-funded projects actually seems to be growing at a healthy pace…
Exhibit A: Total Kickstarter Projects Launched, Month End, June ’12 to Feb ’13
The only problem is that the number of newly-launched projects is starting to slow considerably on a percentage basis. Here’s a look at the percentage increase in month-over-month project launches.
Exhibit B: Percentage Increase Month to Month in Projects Launched, July to February
It’s difficult to see the forest from the trees year, especially against such breakneck growth. According to stats released by Kickstarter, more than 2 million backers came to the table in 2012, with a combined pledge amount of over $319 million. That is more than three times the number of backers in 2011, with similar growth on the dollar front.
Which sounds smashingly great, except that hyper-growth can conceal all sorts of issues. On the ‘fatigue’ front, backers are now getting used to long product delays, and in the case of Animal Collective, complete non-deliveries. And for whatever reason, fewer projects are being conceptualized.
All of which raises the question of whether smashing, Amanda Palmer-style Kickstarter wins will ever become the norm. Or, if the party is already calming down: in the gaming space, this is already a very real problem, especially with everyone now rushing in. “Kickstarter is starting to wear itself out,” Dean Takahashi recently stated. “Now, it’s tough. It’s like going to Hollywood and saying I want to make films.”
“You have to compete with James Cameron.”
Image: ‘deflated,’ by kripptic.