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Top Investor: Facebook Will 'Disappear' by 2020...

Tuesday, June 05, 2012
by  paul

Sure, Yahoo is still around, MySpace is still around, AOL is still around. But according to Ironfire Capital founder Eric Jackson, those companies have effectively 'disappeared,' they are shadows of their former glory.  And if your business was based one of those companies, you are almost definitely dead.       

 

"In 5 to 10 years, Facebook is going to disappear, in the way that Yahoo has disappeared.  Yahoo is still making money, it's still profitable, it still has 13,000 employees working for it.  But it's 10 percent of the value that it was at the height of 2000.  I mean for all intents and purposes, it has disappeared."

 - Jackson, speaking with CNBC this week.

 

The same applies for the once-dominant MySpace, the closest cousin to Facebook.  "MySpace is still  around, they still have a website, but for most people it's disappeared.  I think that's what I see for Facebook.  I don't think Facebook is going bankrupt, but something new is going to come along that we haven't seen yet, that doesn't exist, yet people are going to be fascinated by it, and away from Facebook." 

This is more than just a top-level read on recent internet history.  More fundamentally, Jackson sees a structural inability for companies to successfully transition towards newer internet generations.  "There have really been three generations of web companies over the last 15 years," Jackson continued.  "There were the first big portals - web 1.0, Yahoo and so forth, who came along and were all about getting you information, getting you into one spot.  Then with Facebook we have the dawn of social, or web 2.0, and now maybe a couple of years ago we really have the advent of companies that are purely focused on mobile.  They don't even have websites anymore.  They are entirely focused on maximizing on a phone or tablet form factor." 

 

"And what's most interesting to me is the when you look over all of these three generations is that now matter how successful you are one generation, you don't seem to be able to translate that success into a second generation. No matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you...."  

 

Perhaps the gears of this theory are churning right in front of our faces.  "Look at how Google has struggled with moving into social.  And I think Facebook is definitely going to have the same types of challenges moving into mobile."

 





  • Comments Closed
    Comments (29)

    Visitor Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    Being as dependent on Facebook people are nowadays I think FB will drag on a bit longer than Yahoo, Myspace, etc did. But dude here does bring up some solid points.


    Visitor Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    "Look at how Google has struggled with moving into social.  And I think Facebook is definitely going to have the same types of challenges moving into mobile."

    So Google doesn't exist now? What?


    Tone Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    Google dominates search but they don't dominate the entire web anymore. Facebook still might dominate social media but this guy's point is that there will be something new and better than social, and Facebook won't dominate it.


    QSDC Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    I'm surprised the author didn't mention Microsoft Windows. Windows dominated, and still dominates, the desktop computer OS market. The problem is that the desktop computer market means less now when consumers buying tablets and business putting applications into the "cloud."


    Tone Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    exactly. just like how the search market means less now with social media. something else will come along. it always happens. the bet is whether facebook will be the company to pioneer it. but look at history, microsoft failed with the internet, google failed with social media and myspace failed with their own game. facebook has the odds againt them.


    Me Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    I still have a Yahoo email.  I guess I'm dead. :(  What a weird way to find this out...


    geoff Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    lol


    lOL Friday, June 08, 2012

    yea, i hate yahoo...

     

    GOOOOO Cloud :)


    Erik P Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    I read an article the other day on a study that show teens aren't really all that into Facebook the way adults are.


    Whateve Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    Really 13,000 employees = dead? 

    Here is a guy who obviously doesn't have to work for a living.

    The reality is that people of his circle overvalue things and hype things up so they can cash in. TBH, I can't even believe anyone should think Yahoo would have 13,000 employees, let alone 130,000 (or whatever at it's peak).

    Facebook - it's great for communicating en masse to family and friends. But, I don't know anyone who pays any attention to the ads. Is there another means of generating income besides pyramid scheme public trading? Selling user data perhaps? I dunno.


    Corey Tate - www.spacelab.tv Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    I love how everybody thinks that the future is so predictable. Friendster gave way to MySpace, MySpace to Facebook, so Facebook MUST eventually die. Not true, necessarily.

    Everybody was all crying after the Google IPO about a "botched IPO" because they didn't do the standard Wall St. IPO, which was all about back room deals. Articles about Google's demise flooded the web, saying Google had no real way of making money because nobody could make money in search (how wrong we all were about that), search engines don't last and give way to one another given time, etc.

    It seems really popular to write a Facebook-bashing article right now, but none of them really make sense. Everybody's just repeating everybody else, creating something out of nothing, and the cycle is growing on itself. None of us will know how Facebook will turn out until they take all of that cash from the IPO and spend in a way to grow profits. They're legally bound to their shareholders to do that now.


    Tone Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    It's been popular to bash Facebook for a while. Let's face it, the tide is turning and even they know it. That's why Zuck bought Instagram for a bil. People are realizing that sharing your entire life online is a terrible idea and that's why teens are flocking to other networks/apps with more privacy, control and simplicty.

    Zuck's vision for the web is beyond creepy and not everyone is cool with it. Check the latest article by the LA Times about how teens are going other places.


    Geoff Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Hey got the link to that article please?


    Tone Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    It's been popular to bash Facebook for a while. Let's face it, the tide is turning and even they know it. That's why Zuck bought Instagram for a bil. People are realizing that sharing your entire life online is a terrible idea and that's why teens are flocking to other networks/apps with more privacy, control and simplicty.

    Zuck's vision for the web is beyond creepy and not everyone is cool with it. Check the latest article by the LA Times about how teens are going other places.


    Mark Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Definitely agree, it's all a cycle.  Seems like the second people see that valuation falling on the market, all the hate starts to surface.


    I like FB, use it regularly, and honestly don't have any big qualms about it.  When something that does everything better than FB, yeah, I'll probably jump to that.  But at the moment, you gotta think about what everyone is using... before it was myspace, now it's FB, next, who knows? 

    All this FB hate is so predictable.


    VC Slave Tuesday, June 05, 2012

    Wait, the headline says 'Top Investor' but then the article quotes some guy from Ironfire Capital. Which is it?

    Bloviating investor buffoonery aside, I'll take Zuck for creating shareholder value over some butt-hurt no-name oracle from that bastion of sage investment - Naples, FL.

    Really, DMN?

    You've been gamed.


    Old Guy Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Look at the obvious....What is new will become old...So what..Old is not necessarily bad...Everything has a shelf life...Athletes...food...politicans (thank god)..so, just enjoy what you like until you like something more...life is too short folks...


    Griff Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    I'll bet that FB won't make  January 2014. 

     

    That's based on people waking up to how much they're spied on by all sorts of entities. It will all end, we'll see it beginning by the first half of next year. And then the collapse thereafter.

     

    Best regards,

    Griff


    Jon S. Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Great buying opportunity.

    Everyone and their mother (and their mother's mother) uses Facebook and many are addicted.

    Yahoo never came close to that kind of adoption into the lives of consumers.

    Just wait until those geniuses start monetizing to meet quarterly investor demand.

    Prediction - $300 by 2015!


    mdti Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    A stupid move from facebook to have annouced they are going to make a phone.... who needs another smartphone....


    @katonahdc Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    I'm not sold that FB = Yahoo, MS, etc.


    mdti Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Sell all your facebook shares NOW !!!!! the price will go lower and lower, and I will be able to buy large amounts of them until it goes up again.... :-D


    @mobilepalooza Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Facebook could easily disappear.  Bring on something new!


    zog Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Facebook is a 10 billion dollar company at the most ,if it's value had been placed on real ROI the stock and hype would have never  have gotten out of control. I understand what this gentleman is stating and it'd the same issue's being repeated over and over.


    CLebLabs*TM Wednesday, June 06, 2012

    Exactly, Mobile and Tablet with backlinks to the rest of Social Networks, that is where "CLebLabs"TM is headed:-[ http://cleblabs.yolasite.com ]:-"MEN@WORK:-under construction".


    Kindred Spirit Thursday, June 07, 2012

    Heya Paul, wond'ring...are you the brother of Bruce Resnikoff at UMG? I was over there today, and then after reading this story I figured you guys must be related...right? he's an outstanding guy, and so are you, must be in the blood line.


    7line Thursday, June 07, 2012

    bingo.  paul's the nephew. apparently they deny it though.


    Kevin Kilner UK Thursday, June 07, 2012

    Two words for ya: GROOVESHARK LAWSUIT. Now all the pieces fit together.  Heads up for all the lawyers fighting each other. Connect the dots...1, 2, 3....and another bevhills lawyer hiding like a weasel in the background...so pathetic all these spineless worms. Paul Resnikoff is nephew to Bruce Resnikoff..W O W


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