BigChampagne's Ultimate Chart (a/o February 10th):
1. “What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger),” Kelly Clarkson
2. “Set Fire to the Rain,” Adele
3. “Turn Me On,” David Guetta
4. “Rack City,” TYGA
5. “Good Feeling,” Flo Rida
6. “Smooth Criminal (Glee Cast Version),” Glee Cast
7. “Young, Wild & Free,” Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa
8. “Domino ,” Jessie J
9. “Sexy and I Know It,” LMFAO
10. “Ass Back Home ,” Gym Class Heroes
Is the music industry still locked in a hopeless cycle of hype? Speaking on digital media more broadly, Fuel Industries director of Creative Strategy Sean MacPhedran recently described a 'hype cycle' that tends to affect fresh internet faces. "Our hula hoop fads happen so quickly, they're gone before you even realize it," MacPhedran told attendees at the Digital Strategies Conference on Wednesday, a prefix to the larger Canadian Music Week in Toronto.
MacPhedran focused on sudden concepts like Chatroulette, a site people are already getting over. Haven't heard of Chatroulette? That's exactly MacPhedran's point.
But the music industry has a similar problem. Since the early 2000s, this has been a business addicted to the next big 'solution,' the controllable format or platform that will spark the next boom. Just a few years ago, that was subscription, and the religious stumping came from companies like Napster, Rhapsody, and a number of players that are no longer with us.
Around the same time, the paid download was the savior, and other examples are easy to find. Searching for more hype? The music industry is like a junkie for this stuff, and the discarded needles are everywhere. Ad-based P2P, ad-based streaming, music-focused gaming, mobile-based downloading, ringtones, Long Tail consumption... the list is exhaustive. And, the living, breathing examples of today include cloud-based consumption (Spotify, MOG), DIY, and apps.
But wait. Some of these formats have performed well, and remain meaningful parts of the sales fabric. Rhapsody and Napster may be disappointments to the industry, but their subscriber numbers are niche contributors with unique audiences. Paid downloads failed to replace the CD, but Apple has sold 10 billion songs since 2003. Artists can directly access their fans, it's just that broader scaling probably requires a more sophisticated team.
And, in fairness, some of this is healthy for such an early-stage industry. Both experimentation and risk are required to forge new businesses, and make no mistake, most entrants will fail (or have already failed). But the tendency is to pan the survivors, based on their inability to 'save the industry,' a mentality that may have roots in the legacy business.
We all know the history. Once upon a time, a disproportionate amount of profits emanated from a small group of formats: CDs (and associated mechanicals), terrestrial radio, MTV. Is that legacy shaping the tendency to heap outsized expectations, investments, and energy into each new shining hope?
In reality, the newer business may be made up of a larger number of contributors, and consumers will enjoy a far broader range of consumption options (including free). 'Skinning the cat,' so the speak, may be accomplished with a considerable variety of weapons, none dominant.
In that context, glowing startups like Spotify and MOG are probably overvalued and over-funded. In a conversation recently with Digital Music News, one major label executive pointed to a disproportionate amount of infrastructure around 'fixed' formats like paid downloads and the iTunes Store. But according to the exec, everything is moving to the cloud, so this infrastructure is all-too-dated!
Indeed, systems have to adapt quickly, but is the cloud just the latest victim of industry hype? Haven't we seen this over-emphasis, this savior-based mentality before? The theoretical arguments for cloud-based access are strong, and for that matter, so are the practical implementations. Pandora, MySpace Music, and Spotify are all living, breathing success stories that will continue to grow (in some ways moneymaking, other ways not). But dominate over all forms of music media before it?
Not in a world where Susan Boyle, Lady Antebellum, and Justin Bieber alike can still sell CDs in tonnage. And, for that matter, sell iTunes downloads in tonnage. Sure, the CD is declining, and will eventually exit the stage. But the stage itself is probably going to remain crowded and diverse, with endless options and revenue generators.
In fact, this stage is already getting populated by viable - albeit non-dominant - formats and platforms. And the discussion gets more complicated by differing artist tiers, audience relationships, and demographics. In all likelihood, these solutions will produce less money collectively than the go-go 90s, but the days of mega-producing, dominant formats are most likely over. In that light, perhaps skipping the hype and focusing on the nuance is the better idea, especially as the level of complexity increases.
Paul Resnikoff, Publisher, from Toronto.
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