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Chris Anderson was once a god of digital utopianism, and a motivation for millions in squandered music startup capital. Parts of the Long Tail undoubtedly remain valid today, but reality offered a sobering slap to all the niche nirvana. The Tail just never grew fat enough for it to matter monetarily, and most artists are having trouble selling "less of more" through platforms like CD Baby and TuneCore.
So is anyone drinking Anderson's Kool-Aid these days? In the latest episode of meme creation, Anderson is declaring that "the web is dead," though many of his arguments are actually quite astute - and worth reading. "Over the past few years, one of the most important shifts in the digital world has been the move from the wide-open web to semiclosed platforms that use the internet for transport but not the browser for display," Anderson wrote from his typical Wired pulpit. "It's driven primarily by the rise of the iPhone model of mobile computing, and it's a world Google can't crawl, one where HTML doesn't rule."
We undoubtedly live in a highly-interconnected ecosystem, though the browser is now sharing a crowded stage with other access points. "The delirious chaos of the open web was an adolescent phase subsidized by industrial giants groping their way in a new world," Anderson declared. "Now they're doing what industrialists do best — finding choke points. And by the looks of it, we're loving it."
The translations into the music world sound exciting, but debatable. Anderson hoisted iTunes in the analysis, despite its flattening trajectory in the US and a continuing eclipse by free platforms (legal or illegal). And age delineations are only rough guides in this climate. "When you are young, you have more time than money, and Limewire is worth the hassle. As you get older, you have more money than time," Anderson continued. "The iTunes toll is a small price to pay for the simplicity of just getting what you want."
Not to be jaded, but the future will invariably be more complicated than a Wired essay. And this time around, most entrepreneurs and artists are probably still paying attention - but applying a much healthier degree of skepticism.
Paul Resnikoff, Publisher.
The essay can be found here.
Comments Closed
@jamierowe (via Twitter) Wednesday, August 18, 2010
The last 2 paragraphs on time vs money was worth the read
NathanJE Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Yeah, it is the Wired pulpit.
Anderson really just sounds smart, his arguments are well stated and well written - but c'mon, this is the guy lifting sections from wikipedia to write a book fcol. I read what he says, but I also do my research and make my own opinions.
Dan Thornton Thursday, August 19, 2010
I completely agree with you on the idea that the Web is Dead, and a few people have cross-examined the data Wired used to effectively show the opposite...
But you may have misrepresented the Long Tail theory slightly - the monetisation doesn't come to artists existing in the Long Tail - they're still only selling a handful of CDs, for example. The Long Tail benefits are for the companies which aggregate it - e.g Amazon, CD Baby themselves etc, etc.
The Long Tail benefit for an individual band, artist, writer etc is that because they can have access to a aggregation platform, there's a way that they can get something out there, and with work and luck, they might rise up the tail to a point where it makes a decent financial reward...
GrayPowell Thursday, August 19, 2010
This has really become a thick soup, and I agree with what you are saying Dan with some qualifications that I will delve into. Let me start here: at its purest definition, the LT theory is about companies aggregating and profiting off of the sea of smaller selling content, the "Less of More" as referred to above. Amazon can sell one or two copies of some manifesto - and millions of smaller titles can overpower the best sellers.
Tony Van Veen of CD Baby argues the same thing, but the problem is that CD Baby may be able to make a business shaking every artist down for $4.25 or whatever. But I think that time will prove that this is sort of a scrappy space, and way lower than what investors and startups had initially imagined.
So the above asks if it makes sense monetarily. Like it or not, the LT theory was extended to artists and it rarely makes sense for them.
But even for many services - in music mind you okay - the tail is really not that interesting. So, let's take a look at CD Baby's numbers - I'd venture it's not that interesting either. And all of the competitors, like ReverbNation and TuneCore - ie hot companies - are making nothing near the amount initially envisioned by VCs. Where are their big exits, the billions everyone imagined?
This isn't Amazon, and music is different. And, it turns out that the head of the tail - big artists with big artists - are still very healthy, and I wonder if the tail is really overpowering them right now.
GP
Smart Alec Thursday, August 19, 2010
Anderson Cooper
t.wilson/exposure promo&market Thursday, August 19, 2010
so, does this mean Anderson agrees with Prince?
alexandra Thursday, August 19, 2010
GD Thursday, August 19, 2010
To be fair, you misrepresent his long tail argument. It never said individual artists were going to make money from "less of more." It said, more music would be distributed at a lower price due to the cost of distribution nearing zero. It seems to meet that the record sales are showing this. We've seen less big hits but many more albums released that make some money. That doesn't mean it is good for artists but it is probably good for listeners. So I'm not sure there was a "sobering slap" as much as people who didn't understand the long tail concept in the first place.
bydesign Thursday, August 19, 2010
@GD
I wonder if this is really true in music. I remember Play out of Denmark - TDC - saying that down the tail, a huge amount of tracks got 0 purchases. And that whole discussion about artists making an average of $174 at CD Baby, they never revealed any stats about how many artists are actually making zero. I would wager it is a huge amt., both on CD Baby but also iTunes. Where's that actual data?
Look forward to your response.
@HighWireMusic (via Twitter) Thursday, August 19, 2010
no one's drinking the kool-aid! Long tail=bust unless u r TuneCore or CDBaby who profit by selling the dream
Brian Dobbs Monday, August 23, 2010
In case anyone is interested, not only do I share the same sentiment as this article, but I recently did a podcast on the subject of Mr. Anderson. You can find it here...
http://www.thesoloalbum.com/podcast/#2010cdbabychrisanderson
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