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Buy Buy, WMG: Ratings Change Keeps Boosting Warner Music...

Thursday, September 17, 2009
by  presnikoff

A recent ratings change for Warner Music Group (WMG) continued to boost trading on Thursday.  At the bell, Warner landed at $5.10 after a stretched period of sub-$5 lollygagging.  On Wednesday, Citigroup (Citi Investment Research) analyst Jason Bazinet wildly reversed course, transforming his 'Sell' rating to a 'Buy' and fanning the flames on a possible tie-up with EMI Music.

Bazinet also cited relatively stable revenue streams and cash flow, a growing market share within the recording industry, and solid access to capital.  In reaction, shares surged 5 percent to $4.78 in heavy volume on Wednesday before pushing past the $5-mark on Jason BazinetThursday.  The upward momentum now carries into Friday trading.

But why the sudden change of heart?  Wall Street can be a shady place these days, and unexpected moves like this one seem suspicious.  Indeed, Bazinet bumped his rating by two notches, while dialing his target from $2.50 to $6, all without any concomitant company changes or recent earnings announcements to prompt the move.  Furthermore, the positioning of Citi - a massive lender to EMI owner Terra Firma - easily invites speculation.

Actually, the most recent quarterly report from Warner - delivered in early August - was soggy.  Revenues were somewhat resilient - dropping 2 percent to $769 million on a constant currency basis, but 9 percent with currency fluctuations.  Less ambiguously, total net losses widened more than fourfold to $37 million, a downturn that is happening against a continued CD plunge.



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