Goldman Sachs Says Global Music Revenues Will Reach $131 Billion by 2030

According to a new report from Goldman Sachs, nearly 1.2 billion people will be paying for music streaming in just 11 years.

The latest report from the investment bank – dubbed ‘Music In The Air’ – comes nearly two years after Goldman Sachs predicted global revenue from paid music streaming alone will hit $28 billion in 2030.

Two months ago, the IFPI reported that global recorded music revenues hit $19.1 billion in 2018, up 9.7% over 2017, thanks in large part to music platforms, including Spotify, Apple Music, Deezer, and others.  So, Goldman Sachs’ global revenue projection doesn’t seem too far-fetched.

The investment bank writes,

After nearly two decades of disruption, the music industry is undergoing a massive revival.  Artists, labels, and publishers are cashing in on the growing popularity of streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music – and consumers are signing up for subscriptions like never before.

According to the investment bank, live music revenue totaled $26 billion in 2017.  Recorded music revenue totaled $30 billion.  Publishing revenue hit $6 billion.  In total, global music revenue totaled $62 billion.

Updating its projected forecast, Goldman Sachs forecasts overall music revenue to more than double to about $131 billion by 2030.

Breaking that number down, recorded music revenue will reach $80 billion while live music revenue will hit $38 billion.  Music publishing will total $12.5 billion.

So, what’s behind the surge?  Goldman Sachs writes that millennials and Generation Z music lovers spend more of their annual budgets on music than other age groups.  People aged 13-17, for example, now spend $80 a year.  Those aged 18-34 spend $163.  Overall, people of all ages spend an average of $152 to enjoy their favorite music.

Breaking down the proportion of people who stream music on their smartphones, 18% used music streaming platforms in developed markets last year.  That number will more than double to 37% by 2030.  In emerging markets, 3% of people streamed music last year on their smartphones.  By 2030, that number will reach 10%.

In a stern warning to the music industry, however, Goldman Sachs wrote platforms like Spotify and Apple Music must continue to provide “access to millions of tracks.”

41% of paying users consider this very important.  35% also consider a large catalog fairly important.  The group noted that music streaming could lose its appeal if catalogs become overly restricted or if prices go up.  Exclusives may also have a market-damaging impact.

You can view the full report here.


Featured image by Jericho (CC by 3.0).

One Response

  1. Tom Hendricks

    Why do musicians need record companies anymore. The music revolution will start pennies for play, and every click gets the artist a penny no matter what website he/she is on. Here’s more of what the real future of music will look like.
    Music revolution
    Here is a summary of the Music Revolution; 3 old men control 80% of music. (No women.) That’s bad for everyone. The music revolution against it, that’s great. This music revolution is opening the doors to thousands of musicians, and lots of new music in every style.

    3 CEOs (Warner, Universal, Sony – all men no women in one of the worst glass ceilings anywhere) control 80% of the music industry, only support the same aging teen pop stars – where 1% of musicians make 70% of the money and all the rest make about minimum wage (15K)

    The major 3 make the art, distribute it, promote it on the media outlets they own, and then give themselves great reviews. No musician has a chance, no matter how good you are!!!

    For best music quality, there should be thousands of competing companies, not three; and about half should be run by women. The quality and variety of mainstream music is at an all time low and hasn’t changed much in 10 years. Radio is just ads and nobody is listening, concert tickets are a rip off and hassle, vinyl prices are ridiculous, the music media is just press releases of what they want to promote, awards shows seem fake, best selling music charts can’t be trusted, online streaming sales never get to the musician, music never changes – always the same few promoted over and over- and there is never news of the alternative to all this. Music sales have barely caught up to those of 1999! Most money goes to a few over promoted aging pop stars. (70% goes to 1% of musicians.)

    Where is the music media? What story could be bigger? Corporate media, you can’t pretend this is not happening anymore.

    Reader, who do you support, 3 businessmen, or all musicians?
    Show some courage and demand better for yourself and all musicians. This is not a time to hide your head in the sand!

    The Music Revolution should bring these developments to every musician!
    1. Fair chance to be played on all radio stations due to the quality
    of the music.
    2. Fair guaranteed reviews for all recordings.
    3. Pennies for Play, each time someone clicks on your recording on any website.
    4. Fair, unbiased, ad free, music media.

    There is a music revolution going on and you can decide which side you want – the side with 3 CEOs that control 80% of the music business and the music media, or all the rest of us.

    Do something! Do anything! Just about everything you do will help all musicians.

    Help by these very small things.
    1. Pass the word that 3 CEO’s control music – all men with no women allowed in key positions – and have done great harm to music, radio, concerts, music media, and music online, as well as ruining the careers of thousands of musicians. Just talking about it helps all musicians everywhere.
    2. Support the Dallas musicians or anyone else that is actively against all this.
    3. Lift a finger, literally, and LIKE your favorite songs and videos. Show you care, lift a finger.
    4. Talk to your favorite music news site and ask why they won’t talk about the music revolution.
    5. Support Pennies for Play, a way for any musician to stream music for pennies on his website without record companies or any corporations.

    The music business is auto tuned!
    The Texas Video Showdown is one indie musician representing all musicians, versus the Pop Stars,