Apple Music Is Converting Paid Users 2.5X Faster Than Spotify, Analyst Calculates

Apple Music Now Has 56 Million Subscribers
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Back in 2018, Digital Music News was first to report that Apple Music had surpassed Spotify’s paid-subscriber count in the U.S. Now, analysts have indicated that Apple Music could be “converting potential customers into paying customers” about two-and-a-half times faster than the global leader in music streaming.

To briefly recap, our previous report on Apple Music’s comparatively quick-expanding U.S. subscribership was based upon an anonymous tip from a major distributor headquartered in the States. The corresponding data counted only paid users – not free-trial listeners – and revealed that in addition to claiming more subscribers in the United States, Apple Music was enjoying a much higher growth rate than Spotify (once again in terms of American users).

The report was eventually corroborated by the Wall Street Journal, though neither Apple nor Spotify have divulged their US-specific subscriber counts. Now, there’s more evidence that Apple is outpacing Spotify where it counts.

Gene Munster, an analyst with tech-focused venture-capital firm Loup Ventures, recently disclosed the telling estimate concerning Apple Music’s relatively rapid subscriber increases. The report begins by attributing the figure to the integrated nature of iOS services – including the well-substantiated rumor of Music+TV bundles’ imminent rollout – which consumers value, per Loup.

From there, the breakdown emphasizes Apple Music’s potential to continue garnering more subscribers, as just eight percent of iPhone users (roughly 82 million of 980 million) pay for Apple Music presently, according to estimates. While there isn’t enough confirmed data available to verify the 82 million number, the analysis notes that the sum derived from Counterpoint Research estimates and comments delivered by CFO Luca Maestri – that Apple Music enjoyed “strong double-digit growth” during Q3 FY 2020.

Calculating specifically for the 2.5 times greater conversion rate, Loup divides Apple and Spotify’s respective user adds by their total “addressable devices” counts across eight quarters, between September of 2018 and June of 2020. The survey finds that on average, Apple’s paid-user conversion rate was .5 percent to Spotify’s .2 percent – including .71 percent to .22 percent (favoring Apple Music) during the most recent quarter.

Lastly, the study states that the overall Apple Music paid-subscriber total rose 82 percent between June of 2018 and 2020, compared to 66 percent for Spotify during the same period. However, Apple Music only closed the total market-share gap by a couple percentage points. Nevertheless, assuming that the underlying stats and identified trends prove accurate, Apple’s streaming service appears poised to continue picking up paid subscribers more quickly than Spotify.

This morning, Apple officials announced that the much-anticipated next Apple Event will take place one week from today, on Monday, September 15th. The Cupertino-headquartered company is expected to unveil multiple iPhones (including the 12), a new HomePod, additional Apple Watches, the aforementioned TV-Music bundles, and more.